Fading the Crowd

This Week on The Compound

January 18, 2026

This Week on The Compound

Hunting for High Monthly Income?

Put the Calamos Autocallable ETFs on your radar. Latest distribution (paid December 30):

• CAIE per share $0.32453 (14.36% annualized)
• CAIQ per share $0.39352 (18.11% annualized)

Income that works harder.

On TCAF this week, Josh and Michael spoke with returning guest and fan favorite JC Parets of TrendLabs. They discussed the stocks to watch in 2026, people JC has learned to fade, the sectors looking to break out, the magazine cover indicator, and how to think about prediction markets. (Listen)

INSIDE THE COMPOUND

Narratives drive markets, but it can sometimes take a lot of time and evidence to displace an old narrative with a new one. Josh writing at Downtown Josh Brown on the housing market narrative.

Not that a 5% and change mortgage is terribly attractive in absolute terms, but it finally might be in relative terms. Remember - the narrative was that the housing market is dead and homeowners are locked up because high rates make it undesirable to move or refinance. That’s an old story. Once people learn a story, they get good at telling it - to themselves and others - so they just keep telling it. By following price, you can see reality changing (or perceptions changing) before the new story becomes widely told.

Joshua Brown

CHART OF THE WEEK

Ben Carlson at A Wealth of Common Sense updates this chart of asset class returns every year. You can see that international stocks, both developed and emerging, knocked large-cap stocks out of the top spot in 2025. However, over the past decade, large-cap stocks have still led by a large margin.

MERCH

The Compound Trucker hats come in two colors, so something for everyone. You can always check out all our cool merch at idontshop.com.

COMING UP

Next week, Josh and Michael will be joined by returning guest Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO, and author of the new book The Making of a Permabear: The Perils of Long-Term Investing in a Short-Term World.

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