This Week on The Compound
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This week on TCAF, Josh and Michael were joined by Neil Dutta, Partner and Head of Research at Renaissance Macro Research. They discussed the risk of recession, what's really behind Trump's tariffs, the Fed's next move, and the explosion of AI. (Listen)
OUTSIDE THE COMPOUND
Prior TCAF guest Kai Wu, founder and CEO at Sparkline Capital, wrote a post about the performance of global companies. He finds that global companies have outperformed domestic companies since the GFC, no matter where they are located. The Trump trade war has thrown a wrench in the globalization trend, but that doesn’t mean you should give up.
Amid rising trade tensions, investors’ gut instinct may be to seek shelter in domestic stocks. However, this amounts to nothing more than a bet that trade tensions will continue to escalate; if trade fears abate, domestic stocks are likely to underperform. This is a hard bet to make.
CHART OF THE WEEK
Historically, U.S. investors have paid little attention to the dollar's value. In 2025, however, the dollar has moved to the forefront. Historically, moves in the dollar have a significant effect on the returns to gold and foreign stocks. Keep an eye out for the dollar going forward.
MERCH
You can now pre-order the new Markets in Turmoil t-shirt (in three colors) at idontshop.com.
COMING SOON
This week on TCAF, Josh and Michael will be joined by Carson Block, founder of Muddy Waters Research.
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